Cinema industry analyst Gower Street Analytics has increased its projection for 2023’s global box office to $32 billion, thanks to a better than expected first quarter and the strong recent performance of Universal’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
Gower Street analysts previously estimated a $29 billion box office for 2023, which it announced in December.
The updated $32 billion projection represents a 10% improvement from the earlier estimate.
The revised prediction came as the global industry gathered in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the official convention of The National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO), which runs April 24-27.
A $32 billion global box office in 2023 would represent an approximate 23% improvement on 2022.
It remains 20% behind athe average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) but shows how post-pandemic recovery of the exhibition business continues to improve.
The US market slightly underperformed its Q1 projection (by -$100 million), but Gower Street said a growing release schedule has justified a modest increase in its earlier full-year estimate by $400 million to $9 billion.
China has seen a larger increase, from $5.6 billion to $6.8 billion, back on a level equivalent to 2021.
The international (excluding China and the US) market has been raised 10% (or $1.4 billion) to $16.2 billion. A significant driver was a better than predicted first quarter, led by the holdover business from Avatar: The Way Of Water.